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From: "Mani M. Manivannan"
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Date: Mon, 27 Sep 1999 22:46:04 -0700
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Subject: [agathiyar] Kaveri crisis
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Do changes in environment lead to conflict? American University
researchers argue that they do. Among the several conflicts they
studied, the Kaveri conflict between Tamil Nadu and Karnataka
is of interest to us. Read the article at:

http://ausolaris1.american.edu/projects/mandala/TED/ice/CAUVERY.HTM

for this perspective.

Another article by a professor at University of California at Davis
depicts how much Tamil Nadu depends on Kaveri and offers a longer
term solution. The article is at:

http://www.des.ucdavis.edu/staff/pelkey/cauvery.htm

The current drought in Tamil Nadu and Karnataka is almost certainly
the result of the La Nina effect. While the Americans and the rest
of the world were anticipating such effects, the Indians were proclaiming
a normal monsoon year. If the El Nino/La Nina cycle is very predictable
Tamil Nadu will have to start planning its crops based on not just the
usual monsoon/crop cycles but also on lean and wet years.

Nevertheless, the Cauvery water crisis will sorely test the Indian
political and judicial system. If Karnataka continues to defy the
Supreme Court, the water board and the Central government,
for all practical purposes the nation-state called India will begin
to weaken. Inter-state squabbles will multiply and a weak central
government will be powerless to prevent the emergence of strong
regional states and may be even inter-state "wars!"

A similar situation arose when the Mughal empire was weakening.
Eventually the empire collapsed and Indians were colonised by yet
another invader. Pakistan may not be able to break up India with
its nuclear threats and Kargil wars. But el Nino and la Nina might
trigger it!

Mani M. Manivannan
Newark, CA, USA.