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Date: Sun, 09 Jun 2002 16:43:18 -0000
To: agathiyar@yahoogroups.com
Subject: Re: அணு ஆயதப் போர் -1h9yAtMQ==
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--- In agathiyar@y..., jaybee wrote:
>
> Dear Vijinuk,
>
> You have left out a lot of variables - both
> foreseeable and unforseeable. And some very important
> factors of reality.
> Your scenarios are too straight-forward
> and simple.
> War in the present world is no more like
> game played on the ordinary chess board.


Dear Jaybee

I gave only a possible scenario based on some premises. I gave a
scenario in which , Pakistan uses the nuclear weapon. Pakistan is
very likely to use a nuke in the case of a possible collapse of the
state itself. Under a military scenario like the one I gave, when
it's faces collapse in it's main battle fronts of Punjab and Sindh,
the state of Pakistan itself might collapse. Faced with such a
collapse Pakistan might abandon Kashmir altogether -which is a
rational policy- or go for a fight to the finish with India

There is a possibility that the Indian army may face a prolonged
campaign in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir and some of it's best divisions
may face an encirclement. The mountainous terrain of PoK can favour
the defenders rather than attackers. To relieve presure on it's army
in PoK, India can open new fronts in Punjab and Sindh, a strategy
follwed by India in 1965.

Of course you have other factors like foreign pressure on both the
parties to stop the war, which the combatants may or may not heed. I
think the Indian Govt is determined this time to seek a defenitive
conclusion in Pakistan's Kashmir policy. India had all the chances in
the world in 1948 and 1971 to eject Pakistan from PoK, but it missed
the chances by being soft on Pakistan. For Pakistan's ruling elite
and it's military rulers, Kashmir is one issue which gives them a
suitable excuse to stay in power.


I don't think, this time if the war starts, India wants to do a 1965.
In 65, it was a stalemate which solved nothing. Stalemate is not a
solution in Kashmir and I think Vajpayee govt realises that. Kashmir
issue will solve itself only with these possible outcomes

a. India is kicked out of Jammu, Kashmir and Ladakh

or

b. the present Line of Control is made an International frontier

or

c. Pakistan is kicked out of it's part of Kashmir altogether.

Option a is not workable since India has enough military power to
prevent it from happening
Option b is possible, but the Pakistani ruling circles have not
accepted that and their entire energy has been invested in wresting
Kashmir fully. During the Simla agreement in 1972, Z.A.Bhutto made
vague verbal promises to Indira gandhi to get his 1,00,000 prisoners
of war back home to that effect. But once he got his PoWs, he went
home and repudiated that idea. That was the time when Pakistan was
weakest and a solution could have been imposed, but Mrs.G missed the
chance. Pakistani military and civilian leaders would not like to
have a clearcut solution like that.

Option C is possible if India takes on Pakistan on it's own might.
For strategic reasons, it will be useful because that will prevent
infiltration of armed men from that part of kashmir into Kashmir
valley and Jammu. Otherwise , you will see more Kargil like
situations.


Countries like the USA or the UK or Russia are least concerned in
whose control Jammu and Kashmir is. Hence, it is upto India to
implement a viable solution.


My scenarios are possibly simple and straightforward. Wars are never
predictable in their outcomes. Best laid strategies can come to
nothing due to tactical and operational blunders. Conversely,
tactically brilliant local commanders can suddenly open up new
strategic possibilities, which if the military leadership, is alert,
can seize the advantages- or waste them. In any war there are
unpredictables like morale of the soldiers, nerve of the military
leaders, psychological support from the public opinion and so forth.
On each one, I can write an essay and I will do it in the future


Just because my scenarios are simple , don't discount the possibility
either a conventional or a nuclear war breaking out. However, let us
hear your scenarios.