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Date: Mon, 10 Jun 2002 15:26:06 -0000
To: agathiyar@yahoogroups.com
Subject: Re: அணு ஆயதப் போர் -1h9yAtMQ==eU F0TVE9PQ==
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--- In agathiyar@y..., jaybee
> At 04:43 PM 6/9/02 +0000, you wrote:
>
>
> >Just because my scenarios are simple , don't discount the
possibility
> >either a conventional or a nuclear war breaking out. However, let
us
> >hear your scenarios.
>
>
>
> Your scenario is based on too much optimism.
> The war will take on newer dimensions. There will be more
> developements involving neighbours and other friendly
> countries. The war will not be contained.
> You have not given any margin for insurgency.
> I cannot write more than this. We have limitations.
>
> Regards
Dear Jaybee
You amaze me. You call my view optimistic what with a few hundreds
nuclear bombs fying around?
I think the possibility of war involving neighbours of India and
Pakistan are slim in the short run. So also the possibility of
insurgencies breaking out within a matter of months. The main reason
is no other country would like to get involved in a possible nuclear
war. Non-alignment is the best policy towards nuclear belligerents.
On the other hand, insurgencies and neighbour's involvements are
highly possible after a nuclear war. This is what I wrote on IndCiv
list.
Dear John
I agree that the need for an air shield is now. It is ashame that
Indian defence planners want to go into a nuclear age without a
credible air shield. Purely depending upon the threat of assured
destruction of large areas of Pakistan in counter attacks and the
consequent refusal by Pakistan to initiate a nuclear war assumes that
rational persons are in control of Pakistan's nuclear aresenal who
value self-preservation and human lives more than anything else. With
Islamic fundementalists in charge of large areas Pakistani government
such an assumption will only be that - an assumption.
Letting millions of Indians die in the hope of even more devastation
on Pakistan is insane. As an Indian, I demand a credible defence of
India, irrespective of what may or may not happen to Pakistan. Those
who talk lightly of nuclear devastation of India don't understand
what social and politcal dislocations it will bring. Such people are
like the delirious crowds in Vienna in 1914 who danced when the Autro-
Hungarian empire declared the First world war open, little realising
that 4 years down the road the Austro-Hungarian empire will collapse.
India is unlike A-H Empire. India will win a victory over Pakistan,
but the consequences of a nuclear devastation are incalculable.
Already there is insurgency in the North eastern states. A militarily
weaker India may become an inviting target for land grabbing for
foreign powers, even small ones like Bangladesh. Large portions of
India's population may get disenchanted with the political basis of
India for failing to protect them from a nuclear attack , which can
release lots of fissiparous tendencies. With lots of difficulty,
India controlled Communist Uprising in Telengana in 1948, Naxalite
rebellion in bengal in 1972, Gorkha movement in 1983, Sikh rebellion
in 1993 and a partial victory over Kashnmir rebellion. A devastated
India would be a breeding ground for a large number of rebel
movements, who can easily get foreign support and perhaps win. The
central government may not be in a position to exert control.
Many Indians don't ask these questions.
1. Is India in a position to wage a nuclear war? are it's defence
preparadeness upto scratch
2. What will be the size of destruction in the event of a nuclear war
3. What will be the consequences of such a devastation
4. Will India be weaker or stronger after a nuclear war.
The effects of a nuclear war will be like the combined effects of
the First and Second World wars on the national and poltical
boundaries of Europe
The survival of the country takes highest priority. Hence no amount
of expenses is too small to develope a credible air defence shield.
You say it will take 20 years to develope and induct working
airdefences like AWACs and Surface to air missiles like Patriot. But
I think it will take far less time. For one thing, such technologies
are already available with other countries, even though non-
exporatable under the present conditions. Secondly, India is an
emerging technological power and what is the point in India boasting
of IT revolution, if it can't do quality research and production for
it's own survival. Beg, cheat, steal,rob, develope,buy, borrow,
cajol, charm or do anything, but India must get AWACs and good
Surface-to-Air missiles by hook or crook within the next 1 year.
There is no other alternative
